Glossary / Risk & costs

Expectancy

An educational concept. Not a signal, not a strategy, and not a trade Josh has taken.

Two pale blocks with a teal glass buffer between them and a blank ice-blue measuring bar beside them.
Illustration of the idea, not a market chart and not a result.

The average result per trade in R: (win rate × average win) − (loss rate × average loss). Positive expectancy over a large, honest sample is the goal; it is never guaranteed to continue.

How traders use it: Measured from a large, recorded sample with costs included, not from a handful of trades.

Common mistake: Estimating it from memory or from a few recent trades.

Related: R-multiple (R) · Drawdown

Used in: Risk per trade, R-multiples, and expectancy

See this term in the full glossary · All terms

Concepts only. Education only, not financial advice. No pattern on this site has a published win rate.