Strategies & playbooks
Rules first, results second
Each playbook is a written set of rules you can study and test yourself. Results come later, wins and losses together.
Education and untested playbooks are open now. Verified results and membership remain pending; the target date is not a promise of availability. No result is published until it meets the research standard.
8 research playbooks
Written rules, published for study before any results exist. Every number is an untested research parameter, not a recommendation. Shared rules live in one place: Core rules for every playbook.
- Untested research5-minute bars, UTC day reference
Liquidity sweep and confirmed rejection
Price runs a prior-day high or low, then a completed 5-minute candle closes firmly back inside. Target the frozen midpoint; exit on the stop or after 12 bars. Long (spot). Short branch documented but not tradable on spot. · Risk 0.25% of equity (untested modeling parameter) - Untested research1-hour UTC bars
Trend pullback: reclaim within an explicit filter
In an uptrend defined by a rising 50-bar average, wait for a completed 1-hour close back above the 20-bar average after a dip. Target the prior 20-bar high. Long only (spot) · Risk 0.25% of equity (untested modeling parameter) - Untested research15-minute UTC bars
Range mean reversion: a boundary and RSI recovery
Freeze a flat 24-hour range at 00:00 UTC. Buy only after a 15-minute close recovers off the low and RSI crosses back up through 30. Target the midpoint. Long only (spot) · Risk 0.25% of equity (untested modeling parameter) - Untested research1-hour UTC bars
Breakout and retest: confirmation costs something
A 1-hour close breaks above a 20-bar range on 1.5× volume. Don't chase. Buy only if, within 5 bars, price retests the old high and closes back above it. Long only (spot) · Risk 0.25% of equity (untested modeling parameter) - Untested research1-hour UTC bars, with a 4-hour trend filter
Simple trend following: a higher-timeframe filter and an ATR stop
Trade only when the 4-hour 50-bar average is rising. On 1-hour bars, wait for a pullback to the 20-bar EMA, then a close back above it. Stop is 1.5 ATR beyond that low. Target 2R. Long only (spot) · Risk 0.25% of equity (untested modeling parameter) - Untested research1-hour UTC bars
Donchian channel breakout: the prior high is the signal
Buy a 1-hour close through the highest high of the previous 20 bars. Size from the 10-bar low at entry. The exit may tighten to a new 10-bar low, but it never widens. No fixed target. Long only (spot) · Risk 0.25% of equity (untested modeling parameter) - Untested research15-minute UTC bars
Session opening range: a defined first hour, then a break
Freeze the 00:00–01:00 UTC range. If a later 15-minute bar closes through that high, buy the next open with a stop just under the midpoint. Target one range height, at least 2R after costs. Long only (spot) · Risk 0.25% of equity (untested modeling parameter) - Untested research1-hour UTC bars, with a 4-hour trend filter
Inside-bar breakout: a pause, then a close beyond the mother bar
On 1-hour bars, wait for a complete inside bar in a rising 4-hour trend. Buy a later close above the mother-bar high. Stop sits beyond the mother-bar low. Target 2R after costs. Long only (spot) · Risk 0.25% of equity (untested modeling parameter)
What every playbook will include
Idea
Why the edge might exist, in plain words.
Conditions
When the playbook is on, and when it is off.
Entry and exit
The exact trigger, stop, target, and invalidation.
Risk
Risk per trade in R, sized from the stop.
Tested results
Labeled backtest, paper, or live, meeting the research standard.
Lessons
What broke, what changed, and why.
See the research standard for what a result must show before it is published.
Reading a liquidity sweep: one win, one loss
Hypothetical illustration · not real market data · not Josh's trade · not a tested result
A: Sweep and rejection (the idea working)
| Sweep | Price trades below the marked low, then snaps back. |
|---|---|
| Reclaim | A candle closes back above the level; entry is planned here. |
| Stop | Below the sweep wick plus a buffer. Planned risk = 1R. |
| Outcome | Hypothetical: price reaches the planned target. |
B: Failed continuation (the idea not working)
| Sweep | Identical shape to example A. |
|---|---|
| Reclaim | Same entry rule, same stop rule. |
| Continuation fails | Price rolls over and takes out the sweep low. |
| Outcome | Hypothetical: stop hit at −1R, or worse if price gaps past the stop. |
Both examples use the same rules. Only the outcome differs, which is the point: a setup is a probability, not a promise. These shapes say nothing about how often either outcome happens. That needs a test that meets the research standard.
For the same ideas on real public daily candles — including a range sweep that later failed — see technical examples with historical charts.
Education only, not financial advice. This is a personal record of one trader’s decisions, including the mistakes. Trading crypto carries a real risk of losing money. Full disclaimer.