16 / Change of character — this one did not hold
A close under a nearby swing low, then new highs
ETH/USD, daily. The same CHoCH idea as example 07: a close under a recent swing low after a higher high. In this window that close is in a short pullback inside a steep advance, and price then made new highs. A single close under a nearby low is not a reversal by itself.
Educational examples — not a trade Josh took, not a signal
ETH/USD · daily · 2025-07-14 to 2025-08-16. Data: Kraken public OHLC API. Fills, fees and slippage are not known from these bars. Hypothetical study figures on this page are untested.
Related glossary: change of character, failed breakout, higher highs and higher lows, invalidation.
| What the setup shows | Ether had already advanced from a 14 July low of $2,964.59 to a 21 July high of $3,859.67. On 24 July the low was $3,515.00 (close $3,706.09), a swing low after that rise. On 28 July the high was $3,939.30, a new higher high (close $3,797.08). On 1 August it opened at $3,697.68, low $3,429.88, and closed at $3,485.96, under the 24 July low of $3,515.00. The 3 August low was $3,350.00 (close $3,496.80). |
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| Hypothetical study logic (untested) | A study of a CHoCH short might treat the 1 August close of $3,485.96 as interest, with invalidation above that day’s high of $3,722.99. Planned risk would be $237.03 (1R). An illustrative 2R target would sit at $3,011.90. A wider stop above the 28 July high of $3,939.30 would be $453.34 of planned risk. Untested, and a daily close is not a known fill. The “higher low” here is a short pullback in a steep advance, not a long-established series. |
| What price did afterwards | On 4 August the high was $3,736.10 (close $3,719.99), already through the tighter untested stop of $3,722.99, on the third session after the close. On 8 August the high was $4,070.00 (close $4,008.37), through the wider 28 July high as well. The 14 August high was $4,790.39 (close $4,549.29). The 2R figure of $3,011.90 was not reached. A later high is not a recovered short if the stop was already hit. |
| What could go wrong | Exactly this: a close under a nearby swing low, especially a short pullback in a strong advance, can be followed by new highs. Example 07 and this example use the same CHoCH idea and two different outcomes. Neither is a sample, and neither is evidence the idea has — or lacks — an edge. Treating one close as a reversal without a defined invalidation would have left a short open into a move to $4,790.39. |
Josh explains
A walkthrough of this example
This is narration of the published facts on this page. It does not add new numbers, and it is not a signal.
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Step 1
What the chart is showing
Ether daily, July–August 2025: a close under a nearby swing low after a strong advance, then new highs. This is the same CHoCH idea as the earlier Ether example, with the opposite follow-through in this window.
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Step 2
The untested study idea
A hypothetical short from the 1 August close, with a tighter stop above that day’s high, is labeled untested. That tighter stop would have been through by 4 August, on the third session after the close. The wider stop went later.
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Step 3
Why both examples are here
Example 07 and this one use the same idea and two different outcomes. Neither is a sample large enough to claim an edge, and neither is a trade I took. If you only keep the CHoCH that continued, you are editing the record.
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Education only, not financial advice. This is a personal record of one trader’s decisions, including the mistakes. Trading crypto carries a real risk of losing money. Full disclaimer.