09 / Fair value gap (partial fill)
A displacement gap that was only partly filled, then held
BTC/USD, daily. A three-candle fair value gap opened on a strong up session. The next session traded a short way into the gap and closed back out — a partial fill, not a full fill.
Educational examples — not a trade Josh took, not a signal
BTC/USD · daily · 2025-04-14 to 2025-05-08. Data: Kraken public OHLC API. Fills, fees and slippage are not known from these bars. Hypothetical study figures on this page are untested.
Related glossary: fair value gap, displacement.
| What the setup shows | On 21 April 2025 Bitcoin’s high was $88,490.00 (close $87,500.60). On 22 April a displacement session opened at $87,500.70, traded $93,888.00 / $87,100.00, and closed at $93,472.00. On 23 April the low was $91,949.50, leaving a gap of $3,459.50 between the 21 April high and the 23 April low — 3.91% measured from $88,490.00. On 24 April the low was $91,711.00, $238.50 into that gap, and the close was $93,999.90, back above the gap. |
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| Hypothetical study logic (untested) | A study of a “buy a hold after a partial fill” might treat the 24 April close of $93,999.90 as interest, with invalidation below that day’s low of $91,711.00. Planned risk would be $2,288.90 (1R). An illustrative 2R target would sit at $98,577.70. Untested, and a daily close is not a known fill. This is a partial fill only: $238.50 into a $3,459.50 gap, not a complete retrace to the 21 April high. |
| What price did afterwards | After 24 April, later lows in this window stayed at or above $92,900.00 (25 April and 28 April), which is already above the top of the gap at $91,949.50 — so the gap was not filled any further. The 2 May high was $97,885.00, short of the 2R figure. The 8 May high was $104,082.50 (close $103,228.00), through that 2R figure. |
| What could go wrong | Gaps can be filled completely, or price can fail to hold the partial fill and continue through the zone. Calling this a “held FVG” after the fact describes what these sessions did; it is not evidence the shape has an edge. A close far from the fill also means a market order at the close would have paid up. |
Josh explains
A walkthrough of this example
This is narration of the published facts on this page. It does not add new numbers, and it is not a signal.
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Step 1
What the chart is showing
Bitcoin daily, April 2025: a displacement session leaves a gap between a prior high and the next day’s low. The following session trades a little into that gap and holds in this window. The published sizes and dates are on the page — including that the gap was not filled any further here.
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Step 2
The untested study idea
The write-up sketches “buy a hold after a partial fill” from a 24 April close, with invalidation under that day’s low, and labels it untested. A close far from the fill is also not the same as a fill.
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Step 3
What could go wrong
Gaps can fill completely, or the hold can fail and price can run through the zone. Calling this a “held FVG” after the fact describes these sessions. It is not evidence the shape has an edge.
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Education only, not financial advice. This is a personal record of one trader’s decisions, including the mistakes. Trading crypto carries a real risk of losing money. Full disclaimer.